The Primakov Readings–2022. Highlights of the first day of the International Forum

The Primakov Readings–2022. Highlights of the first day of the International Forum

«Three decades past the the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia has not become an integrated part of Europe, neither has it been granted an "apartment" in the Common European Home. We weren't allowed into it, but now, the more we think about it, the more we understand just how elusive these prospects and expectations were»

Yuri Ushakov

Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation on Foreign Policy Issues

«In the current situation, conceptual visions for the future are in high demand. Russia is most definitely capable of proposing its own. In my opinion, it is yet to be determined more clearly. Such a concept shall not be solely pro or solely contra, solely pro-Russian or solely anti-Western. The Cold War Era models are no longer viable. Resolving global issues by further developing the Eurasian Dimension, relatively speaking, is what can be called a prototype of the real multipolarity»

Konstantin Kosachev

Deputy Chairman of the Council of Federation of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation

«We see the paradigm of international relations conceptually change in Russia today. There is a shift from the "East – West" model towards the "North – South" one. Now, it is about a common space not between Lisbon and Vladivostok, but between Murmansk and Shanghai and Mumbai. It is a shift from horizontal to vertical political and economic thinking. We are yet to redefine ourselves as part of the developed North, as a country that is self-sufficient in its strategic resources»

Alexander Dynkin

President of Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO)

Session 1 «Cooperation in Eurasia amid the Crisis of Globalization»

Geopolitical tensions and the rapid degradation, under the influence of the sanctions policies of some developed countries, of the economic interaction mechanisms that have developed over the past decades have resulted in almost unprecedented shocks to global markets and to international trade and economic cooperation. The scale of these shocks has yet to be assessed and options for countering them have yet to be developed. One thing is clear - globalization, as it has been understood in recent decades, is entering a period of crisis. The usual model of globalization, with the central role of Western countries, is ceasing to work and regional cooperation is gaining weight.

Yerkin Tukumov

Director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Trust is the fundamental basis of the Russia-Kazakhstan relations, and today, it is very sustainable, there are no obstacles for enhancing further cooperation and friendship. Kazakhstan is also an active party to the Eurasian Economic Union while promoting equality-based interaction.

Amid the global and regional transformations the EEU is currently enduring, the Union is faced with a necessity for a reboot. It is crucial that the Economic Union would be an efficient one, within which each of the member states would get the necessary benefits.

The demand for highly qualified labor force could become one of the potential areas for cooperation. Today, when the fight over minds is fierce as ever, social mobility is becoming a global trend.

The era of abundance is over in world economy. It is the end of cheap energy from Russia (but not not limited to) due to financial sanctions and energy crisis, the end of cheap manufactured goods, primarily from China, and the end of cheap US financial assets due to aggressive interest rates.

With the sanctions imposed on Russia, we now see a very interesting trend – the demise of the US dollar, the national reserve currency. It was at the base of a system that has been in place for over 50 years. Now digital currencies are replacing the SWIFT system, and after the Ukrainian Crisis, this trend has accelerated. So, we see the world system transform from the US dollar economy to diverse financial instruments. This creates room for further cooperation between countries.

As we see the rise of regionalism, as opposed to globalization, in global affairs, Turkey is growing geopolitically closer to Russia. It is much more integrated with the Russian economy. In fact, Turkey could potentially replace Germany as the 3rd biggest importer on the Russian market with monthly exports exceeding 1 million USD.

Volkan Ozdemir

Director of the ATA Platform (Turkey)

Session 2 «China after the 20th CPC National Congress and Russia: Strategic Partnership Priorities»

In October 2022, China hosted the 20th CPC Congress. Did new major details emerge in China's foreign and defense policy in general, as well as in the Eurasian and Indo-European spaces in particular? What new insights did the Congress provide for understanding Sino-American relations: are there any chances for normalization, what are the risks and the depth of likely aggravations? What impact will the decisions of the Congress have on Sino-Russian relations: prospects and opportunities, problems and risks? What are the likely changes in China's Belt and Road Initiative against the backdrop of the Congress and China's economic slowdown, the relationship between the Silk Road Eurasian Economic Belt and the 21st century Indo-Pacific Maritime Silk Road?

It is not typical for China to mention other countries in the official documents of the Chinese Communist Party. It is notable however, that the Congress did not mention the West, while the West does mention China quite a lot.

China is now entering the third war: during Trump's presidency, China and the US were in a state of trade war, during Biden's presidency, they entered a technological confrontation, and now, an ideological rivalry is escalating.

China offers the world new ideas that the West is just not ready to discuss as equals. Russia needs to communicate with China: we can have our differences about the future, but this does not mean that we should fight over it.

Alexander Lomanov

Deputy Director for Research, Head of the Centre for Asia-Pacific Studies, IMEMO

Yan Xuetong

Director of the Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University

The world has come to a new age. We need to find out which direction to go. It seems as if there is either a U-turn or the wrong turn – towards a new Cold War. Although we do not have global leadership, there is major confrontation between China and the US, and the core of this confrontation is technology.

China's policy towards Russia is substantially different. With the US, China is seeking to achieve peaceful co-existence and general stability, we are not friends. China regards Russia as a partner and is trying to deepen mutual trust, and integrate our interests.

No matter who holds the power in the US – they will not change their policy towards Russia and China. China opposes unilateralism of the US policy and will be actively trying to increase the influence of such international establishments as BRICS and the SCO.

Session 3 «Russia and India: Opportunities for Cooperation»

Russia and India are natural strategic partners in an emerging polycentric world. The interests of Moscow and New Delhi are not in conflict anywhere and our countries are interested in developing mutual political, economic and humanitarian ties that would strengthen both Russian and Indian positions. Now our friendship is being tested by the global crisis and it is important to understand what we can offer and how we can help each other.

Sujan R. Chinoy

Director General of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), Think-20 Chair for India's G20 Presidency

One of the most complicated tasks in the India-Russia relations is the work on expectations, perceptions, and understandings. We should concentrate our efforts on something that can potentially unite us under a single keyword – trust. We need to settle emerging disputes and disagreements amid a profound dialogue.

In accordance with Russian standards and using Russian parts and equipment, India built 2 nuclear objects that have by now produced 77,5 billion kilowatt worth of energy. Meanwhile, 4 more similar objects are being built at the moment.

Russia and India are now joining forces and working to neutralize the Western interpretation of the "green agenda" and present nuclear energy as an irreplaceable and effective component of the future energy cooperation.

Russia-India relations today will not stay static: they will be developing dynamically for decades to come and will become the driving force for building a strategic partnership between the two countries.

Nikolay Spassky

Deputy Director General and Director of International Activities, ROSATOM

Session 4 «Nuclear Factor in Crisis Management: How to Reduce Risks»

The rise of international confrontation has reached its limits as fears of nuclear war have returned to the headlines - the first in more than 30 years. The breakdown of the old arms control architecture and rapid advances in military technology are raising new questions about nuclear risks and the future of strategic stability. What is the future of nuclear deterrence? What measures can be proposed to prevent nuclear escalation in the face of an acute politico-military crisis? What should be the future of nuclear arms control?

We need to prevent "no business as usual" from becoming "no business at all". The strategic stability agenda needs to be protected. Hence. it needs to be compartmentalized.

Unfortunately, unlike the 1960s, today there is little support for détente. However, there is still hope that détente can be combined with the concept of restraint.

A nuclear war is inacceptable, it cannot be won, and it should not be fought in the first place.

At the minimum, we need to preserve and use what we have. The safety net of so many treaties has been cut away in the recent years, such as the CFE, INF, to name a few. Therefore, it is vital to use the existing security mechanisms and their virtue to launch new negotiations.

We need to consider the impact of emerging cyber threats on nuclear security. We need to avoid the potential risk of the impact of disruptive technology at a nuclear age.

My conclusion is, and it is merely an observation: we are closer to nuclear war than at any time in the past 60 years, and that has to give us a sense of urgency. It is important to maintain a dialogue in a deeply polarized environment characterized by little or no trust at all. We must be talking in any form or at any levels to avoid false perceptions and miscalculations. After all, crisis management on nuclear issues is beyond national security, it affects the future of our planet and our survival as species.

Thomas Greminger

Director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)

Anton Khlopkov

Director of the Center for Energy and Security (CEB)

It is not in the interests of either Russia, or the US, or any of the five nuclear-weapon states (NWS) for that matter, to allow new countries develop their own nuclear weapons.

Given that the last couple of Review Conferences of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) ended without a final document, we do everything we possibly can to stop the next conference from failing.